Which Democrats Have What It Takes to Win the White House?

[00:00] This is the Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast podcast. I'm Kelly Bowman and I have been chasing the stories, meeting the people and uncovering the little details that help you explore this place like a local. And the more time you spend here, you realize it's not just a beach. The shoreline is a launch pad for catching waves and watching rockets lift into space. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast, [00:28] And listen now. [00:30] Fresh Florida Watermelon. When they say don't play with your food, they're not talking about fresh Florida Watermelon. Built for fun, this mouth-watering powerhouse is perfect for backyard barbecues. It's the snack table all-star that always brings its A-game, one delicious bite at a time. When it comes to picking your picnic lineup, select the summertime legend. Pick Florida Watermelon. To see what Florida Watermelon can do for you, visit freshfromflorida.com today. [01:19] Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Joining me today is former senior advisor to President Obama, David Oxler-Rodd. You all know Axe. Maybe you've heard him on this pod,

[01:30] TAP or the Axe Files. [01:31] or you've likely seen him on CNN. Axe is an all-around expert that can speak to anything in Democratic politics. [01:36] I asked Axe to come on the show because I wanted to talk to someone smart about the midterms, both what the map looks like for the Dems after a series of devastating court rulings and what he thinks of some of the candidates running up and down the ballot. I also wanted to talk to him about messaging, namely how some of the party's leading voices [01:49] And likely 2028 candidates are talking about the administration and if their theories of the case are actually any good. We shared a great and wide-ranging conversation, which we'll get to in a minute. But before we do, if you're a friend of the pod subscriber, which if you aren't, you should be, you can now buy tickets for this year's Crooked Con. There is a special presale just for subscribers. But if you're not a subscriber because you hate pro-democracy media and love listening to podcast ads, you can buy Crooked Con tickets next week starting on May 19th. Either way, it'll be a big fun party right after the midterms, November 5th to 7th in Washington, D.C. [02:19] for more details, including how to become a Friend of the Pod subscriber. [02:22] All right, let's get to the show. Here's David Oxelrod. [02:29] David Oxelrod, welcome back to Puts of America. Yeah, it's good to be with you, brother. Always good to see you. [02:34] It's been a long time since I've seen you. [02:36] It has. But I will catch you in Chicago in about a month at the Obama Library opening. I'm looking forward to it. I went through there the other day. [02:43] Have you been there? I have not. I talked to Cody Keenan after he went, and he said it was quite emotional, actually, and pretty amazing. That's exactly. I went over sort of out of a sense of obligation. They had wanted me to come see it, and I found it incredibly emotional. It really was like reliving the journey. So I'm anxious for you guys to see it. Yeah, we're very excited about it. All right. Fortunately, we've got a lot of things happening between now and then. We are now.

[03:12] Less than six months from the midterms. A few weeks ago, things looked great. Democrats felt like they were on a glide path to taking the House by a pretty significant margin. [03:21] Then over the last few weeks, there's been nothing but bad news. Supreme Court got to the Voting Rights Act. The Republicans are rapidly redrawing the map, eliminating Democratic districts across the South. Virginia Supreme Court throws out the new map that would have given Democrats four seats. [03:35] As a party, we've returned to our natural state of panic. Yes. Where do you think things stand right now in the race for the house? How worried are you? [03:44] Look, Dan, you know the history of this. There have been 39 midterm elections since World War II. And the party that is in the White House has gained seats in two of those 39 in 1998 and 2002. And in both those elections with Clinton and Bush, Bush right after 9-11, they both had approval ratings in the 60s. [04:14] losing end of this, you know, no matter how no matter no matter how hard you try, there always a referendum on the president. And very rarely do you win in that because it's an it's an opportunity for people who express their. [04:30] their discontents [04:33] And, uh, [04:35] So, I mean, it is still the case that Democrats, I think, are – [04:40] probably significant favorites to win the House, just not the prohibitive favorites they were. And I think this is a flashing light in this regard. When you're in a campaign against Donald Trump, it's sort of asymmetric warfare because he does not

[05:00] adhere to rules and laws and norms and institutions. I mean, that's a disadvantage for Democrats who are accustomed to doing that. And so this is one element of what he has in his asymmetric toolbox, but we still don't know what is going to happen relative to voter suppression, voter purges, [05:30] voting boxes and all kinds of other things that are meant to depress democratic turnout. Now, I figure if the people of Hungary can do it, the people of the U.S. should be able to also, but because obviously Orban threw up that many obstacles and more up. But I don't think anybody should take anything for granted. This is going to be a bumpy ride from start to finish. [05:55] Yeah, I mean, when you just look at the numbers, right, Nate Cohn estimates Democrats need to win the popular vote by 3.9% to take the House with this map. That even presumes Republicans getting definitely getting that seat in South Carolina and maybe getting two and losing it where they're only going to get one. And we're on track for that. It's just... [06:13] what that margin is, [06:15] is really hard for... [06:17] It's just not what should be given Trump's approval numbers given the economy. And then that – we may still get – look, you win the House by one seat. Hakeem Jeffries is still speaker. He's still in charge of every bill that passes. But it's can you keep the House –

[06:31] in a less favorable political environment two years from now, four years from now. And that's where the. No, I think that that's a that's a valid concern, because I don't think the full effect of the Voting Rights Act kind of rescission by the Supreme Court is going to be felt in this election. And the Republicans are not going to have as much time to organize around it. [06:50] And a presidential election, you know, used to be that a presidential election favored Democrats because Democrats, [06:58] The infrequent voters... [06:59] tended to be Democrats. Now, you know, the midterm elections and special elections favor Democrats because the Democratic Party, for better and worse, has become a party of sort of metropolitan, professional, you know, white collar people, college educated folks who tend to vote regularly. This used to be a Republican advantage. So I think, you know, the next elections could be [07:29] But as to November, you know, Trump's numbers are abysmal and they're getting worse. His numbers on the economy, which was the calling card that got him elected in many ways, are atrocious. You know, 30 percent in the last CNN poll among independents, 23 percent because it's his base that's keeping him buoyed. And those independent voters are going to be pretty important in these swing states and districts. [07:59] tricks. And on top of that, he's got, he'll probably have, you know, he has, whether he spends it or not, we'll see, but he'll probably have $600 million. You know, he had $300 million in his, in his super PAC at the beginning of the year. And let me tell you, when you're, when you get, you know, millions and millions of dollars in donations from the families of people you pardon in advance of the pardon, that's a very efficient way of fundraising. Half the money

[08:29] least comes from people who have, you know, government interests. You know, like I said, there's nothing that the words that [08:38] you will never hear flowing from this president's mouth as, well, we could do it, but it would be wrong. That's just not going to happen. That is a thing you can hear from Democrats' mouths. Going forward, past this election, you talk about the asymmetric warfare. Hakeem Jeffries is out there since his decision saying we have to have a total warfare approach. Virginia Democrats, at least for a minute, looked relatively seriously at the idea of changing the age limit on their justices to retire all of them and replace them. It turned out to be whatever other problems there [09:08] to be logistically impossible to fire the justices, get new justices, draw new maps and get them improved at time for the primaries. But there's been, since this decision, there's been talk about, you know, like expanding the playbook. Kamala Harris was doing a Zoom call with a political group where she talked about [09:24] Court reform, multi-member districts, all these things. What do you think about how Democrats have to change our approach over the medium term and the long term here to maybe narrow that asymmetric gap? Yeah, well, first of all, look, I think that you heard for the longest time and it was reflected in polling districts. [09:43] discontent with the leadership and, uh, [09:47] both Jeffries and Schumer because of a perceived passivity. I think Hakim has changed his tone markedly lately, in part because he's trying to hold his troops together here.

[10:02] You know, I mean, I'm mixed on this stand because I understand the stakes and I understand the idea that if the other side is playing tackle, you can't play touch. And on the other hand, you know, this is the lot of Democrats. If you're the party who actually believes in rules and laws and norms and institutions, it's very hard to reconstruct them once they're shredded. [10:32] as to how far we should go. And the best thing we can do is... [10:39] you know, embrace the right message, which is going to be more important and even more important in 28 than 26, because so there's so much that should be pushing our way if we become the party that we should be, which is to respond to the fundamental concerns that people have been expressing again and again and again that Trump has ignored. [11:03] I don't want this next several years to be defined by a contest. [11:11] between who can be more clever in sort of gaming the system. I don't think we have to if we are the party that honestly is responding to a system that is in many ways corrupt and rigged against people. And we're offering a real vision for the future that. [11:31] holds out some promise for real, bold, and genuine reform. Yeah, I go back and forth on this, too. I generally believe that it is in the country's interest to find ways to make our institutions more democratic. And when they are rigged for one party or the other, that is bad because it suppresses the popular will. That's why I'm very open to term limits for Supreme Court, just to things like that. The one thing I'm very confident that we just have to do and it's not an option is –

[11:56] redistrict to maximum advantage in 28 in the states where we can do that. [12:00] Just because you just can't. [12:02] This is a little bit like... [12:03] We hate super pat. We hate dark money, but the other side is taking all the dark money. So we can't unilaterally disarm. I think we cannot unilaterally disarm here. So I think whether it's Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania, these states where we have control, we have to do it because there are just the number of states that Trump was won three times. [12:20] just hold a lot more seats in the number of states that Democrats have won three times. We kind of have to do that. No, I don't disagree. [12:27] I don't disagree with that. I hate it, but... Yeah, but... [12:31] It's just, you know, like changing the age limit on the Virginia Supreme Court. [12:39] I don't know about that. I don't think that's where we want to be. [12:43] So, you know, I just don't want, well, Trump would do it to be, always be the yardstick by which we measure ourselves. One of the geniuses of Trump, and let's be clear, he is, he does have certain genius. I mean, kind of an idiot savant in many ways. But he, but one of them is that he exposes hypocrisy very well. [13:13] universities that folded and all the politicians who have folded on principles that they heretofore had held close. You know, his point, this is what Donald Trump really believes. He believes the world is the hunger games where the strong take what they want and the weak fall away and everybody has a price and rules and laws and norms and institutions are for suckers.

[13:43] Every time someone submits to that because they think they're going to somehow win his favor, they help prove his point. But that's separate from this issue of redistricting. But he does bait you into these fights so that he can say, well, they're no better than I am. [14:03] Yeah. If everyone's corrupt, you might as well take me. Yes, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Let's move to the Senate here, where, John, despite discussions of possibly making Venezuela a state, Trump has been unable so far to rig the map in his favor, although he has some advantages of it. [14:18] Inherent. [14:20] In some of the states that Democrats need to win or have to win, like Iowa and Michigan, we're in the midst of some pretty divisive primaries, which are – [14:28] They're exposing all kinds of divides in the party. They're being treated as proxy battles for the future of the party. How much do you worry about this sort of democratic division? Do you think it's generally healthy for the party to have these fights now? [14:42] It's really hard to avoid them. You know, we don't have command and control, even though sometimes those in Washington would like to have that. At some point, you know, you do hope that. [14:54] Um... [14:55] People will evaluate their own chances to win a primary and [15:01] you know, perhaps influence the outcome of a primary, but with no chance to win if people get to that point. [15:11] You know, you would like to field the best candidates in the general election. And part of the way you...

[15:18] find out who the best candidate is, is to see what they do out there. I think in Iowa, you know, I think Turek is probably the strongest candidate in the general election. And I think he'll, and I think he is showing himself to be that, uh, and will probably be the nominee. Um, you know, Michigan's a more complicated case. It's a three-way race, um, just in terms of, uh, skills [15:48] is probably the most gifted athlete [15:51] of the three, whether, you know, there's concerns about whether he, you know, [15:58] you know, in terms of his positioning, is the best candidate for the general election. [16:05] And and we'll have to see. But I do know this. If Democrats are going to take over, it's almost impossible to believe that Democrats would take the Senate without Michigan, without holding. Absolutely. So that's a that's that's the reason for people's concern. And it's a it's a legitimate concern. [16:25] This is a perfect opportunity for me to point out that Pod Save America is hosting a Michigan primary debate on next Sunday's episode where Alex Wagner is going to host a conversation with the three Democrats in the race. [16:34] Abdul Al-Sayed, Malia McMorrow, and Haley Stevens. Very excited about this one. [16:39] Yeah, I didn't even know that, and I set you up nicely there. I know. I know. Well, I asked the question for the hope that I would get to the point where I could say that. Well, you're pitching. I'm catching, brother. That's right.

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[18:27] That's a tough one. Okay, let's go to two. Do I feel energized by my work? Something in the day. Or am I constantly drained and counting the hours until it's over? Oh, boy. No, I feel very energized. Today I feel drained. Yeah, that's true. It's Friday. Do I know what my next career move should be? No. Or am I just hoping something better shows up? Yes. I mean, yeah. [18:48] You should talk to a career coach through strawberry.me. Think they can get me on Rogan? Yeah. [18:53] Their coaches work with you one-on-one to understand your strengths. I could do the daily. Identify your gaps. Yeah. [18:59] and build a clear roadmap toward a career you're actually excited about. Can I do Caller Daddy? Like when Tommy appears on Tucker Carlson's show and takes over for him. Because the biggest risk isn't making the wrong move. It's staying stuck without a plan. That's true. Take control of your future at strawberry.me slash cricket today and get 50% off your first coaching session. That's strawberry.me slash cricket. [19:22] What about, what did you make of what happened in Maine? Because that seems to be sort of indicative of [19:27] a shift in... [19:30] the party, a shift in what people are looking for, maybe a sense that the Senate leadership or the establishment is – [19:35] at least in that race, was not in touch with what the voters wanted? There are a lot of factors here. One is that I think we're in an anti-establishment moment, and that's true in both parties. I think there is a real jaundice about the status quo. You know, I mentioned earlier, you know, 70 percent of people in polling say the system is corrupt and rigged against them. I think there is a sense that Washington, you know, when you'll remember back,

[20:04] in the day, Dan, when Barack Obama ran. One of the reasons he won was because his campaign was a full out. [20:13] critique of [20:15] Washington generally, not just the Republicans, but Democrats as well. And the sort of red, red, blue, who's up, who's down kind of struggle for power that had nothing to do with people's lives, lives or principal concerns. I think we're back there again. And so establishment candidates are at a disadvantage. And Jan Mills is a perfectly good person and has served honorably, [20:45] She had the stamp of Senator Schumer on her to certify that she was the establishment candidate. And she was she would have been 79 years old when she got sworn in. So part of the other discontent people feel after two octogenarian presidents is with, you know, the gerontocracy in Washington, which also speaks to establishment. [21:12] politics. People don't feel like the folks in Washington are in touch with their lives or focused on their lives. I think Trump has exacerbated it because he ran contending that he was. And then, you know, and he now we're into, you know, ballrooms and monuments and, you know, [21:29] a graft on a scale we've never seen before. This is one place where he says nobody's ever seen anything like this before. He's right about this. Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before. And so people feel betrayed, you know, those who voted for him or who had some hope for him.

[21:59] grassroots guy. He seems to be speaking the language and living the life of people who feel unrepresented. And, um, [22:07] uh, [22:09] But it was stunning the degree to which he was able to take that approach [22:16] you know [22:17] By storm, I mean, just literally blow the incumbent governor out of the race. You know, I actually wonder a little bit if he would have been better served by her hanging around for a while. I 100 percent agree with that. You know, there was no need to start for it. He for I'm not surprised. Planner one. I was. [22:38] Very frustrated at the DSCC and Schumer for endorsing Mills to begin with for all the reasons you said, just the idea that we were just going to decide from on high in Washington that our best chance against Susan Collins was a 79-year-old establishment politician. And I say that as someone who likes Janet Mills and interviewed her on the show. She's no Joe Biden. No, she's not. But it's just it's the – [22:58] It's the model everyone rejected last time. And Plattner turned out to be... You know, I certainly thought he would definitely win prior to all the online posts and then thought he... [23:06] He navigated that well enough to survive and then knock her out of the water. But he would have been much better off if this had gone to the end. He had a chance to beat her. You delay the general election by another month instead. Now he's already got negatives against them from pro-Susac-Olecy-Burgo. [23:22] Yeah, I don't blame her, though. She ran out of money. And I'm not sure that she was that eager to hang around just to let him claim the trophy, you know. So the thing, one other thing I think this underscores is,

[23:36] And you know this from your own career. [23:40] Don't let yourself get talked into running for an office you don't want to run for because it's never going to end well. You're not going to be an effective candidate. [23:50] uh you know i i mean platner by the time she dropped out he had done i think more than 50 town hall meetings in the state she had done i think zero uh you know and if i've you guys have a huge listenership so um if i'm wrong i'm sure someone will tell me it's a number closer to zero than 50 i'll tell you that yes well there's no doubt about it yes and uh uh [24:16] You know, um... [24:18] You know, he's hungry for this and he's eager for it and he's young and he's going after it. And so getting drafted against your will is a is a bad way to enter a race. Don't back into a race. Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first campaign appearance of the cycle, getting some tacos with James Tallarico and Gina Hinojosa, who's running for governor. [24:48] on Air Force One. Let's take a listen to what he had to say. The Democrats have a weird, a weird candidate. Six genders. [24:57] A real hit on Jesus. [25:00] I mean, this guy, this man, you know, he's with his mask from relatively recently. He's a vegan. He's a vegan. All of a sudden, he's not a vegan. He was a vegan. Now, all of a sudden, he's not. Texas doesn't like vegans.

[25:13] I do believe [25:15] either one of them will easily win the race and they get [25:18] The candidate the Democrats have in Texas is a very flawed, very weak, very, I think he's a pathetic candidate, especially for Texas. You know that Shakespeare thing about thou doth protest too much. But, you know, what's interesting about the dynamic in the Republican primary is that the folks who want John Cornyn to, [25:42] Uh... [25:43] And they'll say privately that they think Tallarico's too left for Texas. They've got plenty of stuff. They could take him out. But they're not saying anything because right now what they're saying is Tallarico can win unless we knock Paxton out of the race. If Paxton wins, Tallarico can win. Once this primary is over, they're going to open up on him and they're going to along the contours of what Trump is saying. [26:13] Corning campaign. Um... [26:16] But interestingly, he hasn't endorsed Cornyn. [26:20] I trust that when Tallarico went out for tacos that he had... [26:27] Beef or chicken. [26:30] Is that not a vegan, as Trump announces it? A vegan, yes. Not a vegan taco. Not a vegan. Did he say, did I hear that right, that he's bad on Jesus or something? What did he say there? He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references, I think, I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online.

[26:47] the [26:48] I great question. I think it was at the same time he said the six genders thing. I don't I don't really know. But this is there have been some clips from a speech he gave in 2020, I imagine, or right after that, that have been going around. I think Trump has obviously seen those and he is doing it. But I'm not sure the idea that James Hillary goes anti Jesus is going to sell. No, I'm sure that he would love to have that conversation directly with the president. You know, you you can't like violate like. [27:17] Many of the major Ten Commandments... [27:20] and then start going after someone else over their Christianity. [27:28] I mean, Tallarico is clearly... [27:30] very [27:32] serious about his faith and that's one of the reasons he is where he is because that's translated really well and he has preached the gospel of the brotherhood of man and [27:47] People who are so tired of all this conflict are responding to him. So we'll see what happens. Look, I think Texas is hard. You and I have gone through campaigns together where we held out hope for states like Missouri at one point. And it always turned out to be fool's gold. And the question, is that the case here? One of the wild cards in Texas is that, you know, Trump won a solid victory there. [28:17] the two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump have been among Hispanics and young people. Hispanic voters, I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. They're a working class constituency in the main. And I think the...

[28:37] And in South Texas, I think they were eager for border control. They weren't eager to be racially profiled. And I think because of all the stuff that ICE has done, combined with the economic stuff, he has completely dealt away the advantages that he gained among Hispanic voters. [29:07] gerrymandered the state. Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Tallarico is a uniquely talented candidate. Yeah, he's great. Yeah. He's very good. He is... [29:16] He is, I think, if anyone can do it, it's James Tallarico in this year, particularly against Paxton. [29:22] The Latino numbers you point out are very notable. Pew has a poll out today which shows that Trump's approval rating among Latino Trump voters is [29:31] is down 30 points since election day, 2024, which, you know, that's a big chunk of voters. You know, we saw this in the primary, right? It's a primary, but Tallarico got more primary votes than, [29:44] then Kamala Harris got votes in, you know, sometimes by two or three in some of these Rio Grande Valley counties. She got two or three times the number of votes Kamala Harris got on Election Day. [29:53] in 2024. So there's obviously some persuasion. This is not just turnout. There's some persuasion happening here because a lot of these people, these Latinos who voted for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting. No, I was going to say just on the Hispanic issue, I think one of the reasons Trump is harping on him and Christ is that I think it's very advantageous for Tallarico

[30:23] including Hispanic churches and as fluent as he is in scripture. And so I think Trump is trying to chip away, chip away at that. What were you going to say? I was going to ask you about the decision to have Obama come to Texas for him. Like it is a race where he's got to win. You know, Trump won Texas by 13. I think he's got to get a bunch of people who pull the lever for Trump to vote for him. [30:49] Do you think springing Obama was a good move? You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but my guess is that [30:56] looking at his numbers nationally, they're not bad. And there is a [31:04] You know, Obama's not campaigning [31:06] that much for candidates at this juncture. I'm sure he will. But there is a stature thing. It kind of elevates Tallarico and the race. And he may just want to, you know, because of the whole vegan thing, as you said, Trump said, maybe he just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco. Yeah. And look, I think also, I imagine, I'd have to look at it. I imagine that Obama's numbers with [31:32] Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump are quite good. And so with like, Tallarico is smart. His campaign is being run by smart people. They're not just doing this because it's good for TikTok views. Like they obviously have looked at their data that suggests that with their target voters, Obama is a plus. [31:48] And the other it's not like there are a bunch of Republicans who are going to stay home because they're mad at Trump. And all of a sudden Barack Obama shows up for tacos one day in May. Like, OK, we're turning out. One last thing on this. I mean, one of the reasons Trump's going after Tallarico is because it seems pretty clear that he's decided.

[32:04] to stay out of this race. There was a presumption that he was going to endorse John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. And he's now been convinced that, uh, [32:15] Either of them can win. But the Paxton question is really an open one because he's a guy who is absolutely freighted with scandal. And while he's very popular with the Republican base, he could be very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs around the big cities there. I don't think Obama is going to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's going to hurt Tallarico to have him there with those with those voters. [32:45] We'll see. But I will say, I mean, because of the fool's gold. [32:51] PTSD I have. You know, I'm looking, you know, I look at Iowa, for example, and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to be a better shot than Texas? Is Alaska, with Mary Peltola and the rank choice voting system against a very weak incumbent in Sullivan, does that give you a better chance? Here's the thing. When you, you know, you have to win a couple of states where Trump won by double [33:21] in any case, and you want as many opportunities as possible. So Democrats can turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas, even, and I think it's the longest of them, but even Nebraska, you know, where you have an independent candidate supported by Democrats who did very well in a Trump landslide last time.

[33:45] against Ricketts, the the senator, the incumbent senator, former governor. You know, I think that. [33:54] Um... [33:56] There's a better than 50-50 chance that Democrats can piece it together, assuming that the wave is what we think the wave could be. And remember, the wave is more important in these Senate races. You know, they may piece districts together to hold down the House margin, but statewide districts. [34:15] you know, harder. [34:23] Positive America is brought to you by Tommy John. What do you love about Tommy John? Well, it's not just a surgery anymore. You know what it is? Not just your two hosts right here. Yes. It's an undies brand. That's right. And they have all kinds of, actually, undergarments. They've got T-shirts and all sorts of great stuff. Well, here's what you like about Tommy John. They're underwear, they're soft, and they're durable. They're breathable, and they're lightweight for all day comfort, especially outside. You don't want your underwear suffocating. No, no. They've got a curved pouch. [34:53] for comfort and control to support and flatter your natural shape. Does your natural shape flatter? It flatters the hell out of what I got. The stay put waistband ensures your Tommy Johns won't roll, bunch, pinch, or leave marks, and their unique quick draw fly provides a horizontal opening for fast, easy access when nature calls. Here's the thing about Tommy John. I bet you have sitting in your drawer right now a bunch of old, disgusting underwear that is like a year past its prime. This is what you do. You go to the drawer. You take the underwear.

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[36:54] Yeah, the Zenimap is, I mean, it's challenging, it's kind of shocking, and it says everything that [37:00] we'd be sitting here now and you'd say it's a coin flip that we take the Senate or even maybe even a little bit better than a coin flip. When I look at it, [37:06] If you're just doing... [37:07] like [37:09] most likely scenarios. Like, I would probably pick Alaska of the... [37:14] Texas, Ohio, Texas. [37:16] Iowa, Alaska, [37:19] Probably I'd pick Alaska just because of the fact that Mary Pantola has won in that state before. There is ranked choice voting. Dan Sullivan is particularly unpopular. [37:28] And then, you know, I think maybe Ohio. Yeah. And then I think Ohio. I you know, Sherrod Brown came pretty close last time as Trump was carrying the state by double digits. [37:41] And he's running against a senator who was appointed, who's never run on his own statewide and who doesn't have a, you know, a huge role. [37:52] image in the state. So he's going to be more associated with Trump just by dint of having no real profile. I mean, he'll try and be, he was DeWine's guy. He'll try and run that way. But he can't run away from Trump. Trump won't allow him. And it's very hard, as you know, to run away from an incumbent president anyway. So, you know, Sherrod Brown was an economic [38:22] So I think –

[38:26] You know, I'm not sure that I would rate Alaska over Ohio, but... [38:30] I think that the most likely combination, if Democrats are to take the Senate, would be North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska. I'm sort of stipulating Maine and North Carolina as must wins because winning three of the other four is hard. Yeah, but Plattner. [38:48] is going to, you saw David French wrote a very tough column in the New York Times this week about him. And I mean, not that people read that, but that was the tenor of what [38:59] They're going to go back at him with more ferocity. But Susan Collins, after all this time and given the nature of the times, is a really vulnerable candidate. So we'll see. For all the reasons we discussed earlier. [39:20] It's the Susan Collins thing is interesting because she has been like, she is a Republican in a state. The Democrats win by nine points. [39:28] We should beat her. Should have beaten her in 2020. She's very tough to beat. She's been fortunate enough to be able to avoid some of the worst votes ever. [39:36] this time around because of the Senate margin. Yeah, they cut her loose to do it. Yeah, she didn't have to vote for the beautiful bill. She got to take a pass on some of the worst cabinet decisions [39:45] appointments. [39:46] But she's still... [39:48] is a Republican Democratic state and one who represents status quo, you know, [39:53] So it's going to be a very fascinating race. And the question is, you know, you and I both know the folks working on that race is,

[40:00] Can Plattner withstand what will be... [40:03] A massive amount of scrutiny. [40:04] some of it from his own side, because there are people pretty pissed about how this race played out. And, [40:09] every possible dollar dumped on his head with some of the nastiest. Yeah. And I mean, I think, you know, time time will tell about that. Yeah. I heard someone tell me about a focus group in that state and someone was talking about Susan Collins and they said she's bipartisan. She's she's only bipartisan when it doesn't count. [40:39] Supreme Court nominees, but she voted for some. She voted for the ones that counted for sure. [40:44] As I pointed out to someone, it's, you know, you can you can remove a tattoo, but you can't remove a Supreme Court justice. So, you know, that we'll see how that goes. It'll be a fascinating, fascinating race. But I'm assuming that that Plattner wins the race in the end. [41:00] That's my hope for sure. [41:04] Both in the House and the Senate, everyone keeps saying the campaign is about affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability. [41:11] Obviously, just saying the word affordability is not actually a message, although some Democrats have the habit of reading the stage directions instead of the script, and so they're just saying affordability over again. [41:21] Is a message around affordability enough? Does it need to be bigger than that? What do you think Democrats should be saying? [41:26] Well, I think... [41:27] I think that we have structural issues in our economy. We've got the affordability issue is hitting people hard, but people have been, you know, kind of.

[41:38] bobbing in the water and not gaining for a long time. And the polarity in our economy gets worse and AI is going to turbocharge that. [41:50] at least in the short run, maybe in the long run. And I really think, I don't know that it's necessary to win in November. There are discrete things you could propose in order to win in this November. But as I said, it's largely a referendum. Anybody who runs for president better have a much bigger vision about how you reform a system that was broken before. I think it's a mistake to assume that [42:17] when you run in 28, that the message could be, we're just going to kind of, [42:22] restore everything that Trump knocked down because people weren't that happy with the system before he knocked it down. I mean, they didn't feel they were being well served. And, you know, they felt the system was corrupt. They felt it was rigged against them. They felt that they weren't getting ahead. [42:41] You know, it requires big structural kinds of answers. [42:47] that, you know, to not only to to put some equity into the system, but also to genuinely try and reform a system that is, you know, since our you remember when our boss warned people about Citizens United in 2010. And Justice Alito was deeply offended by that and shook his head on the floor. Everything he said has happened.

[43:17] money and dark money and... [43:20] pernicious influence and it all conspires against working people. So campaign finance reform is really important. We also have to think, I think Democrats, what strikes me, Dan, is that we have this [43:36] battle going on between the great ideas of the 19th century and the great ideas of the 20th century, you know, tariffs and no civil service and so on from the 19th century. And then, you know, sort of Rooseveltian structures in the 20th century. And we're in the 21st century. And we ought to be thinking about how do we solve the problems of today using the tools of today and not be wedded to the old ways of doing things, be wedded to creating a country [44:06] in which people can work hard and get ahead and where we can deal with some of our most pressing problems. But don't assume that the way we approach them in the 20th century is necessarily the way we have to approach them now. I think there's a lot of room for a genuinely reform oriented candidate who has some vision for the future to move this country. I also, now you put [44:36] I, uh, I, [44:39] uh, but you know, I've been thinking a lot about this election and, um, [44:43] No two elections are alike. But if you were going to say, well, what is this election most like? It goes back to one that you will not remember, but I do, which is the election of 1976. It was the first election I ever voted in.

[44:59] right after Watergate. [45:03] And the country was stunned by what happened in Watergate by the corruption of Richard Nixon and the. [45:12] And by the way, you know, there was a real politicization of the Justice Department, of the CIA, a lot of these. I mean, it was it was somewhat analogous to what we're facing today. People wanted a cleansing. They wanted to give Washington an angioplasty. They wanted a fresh start. And that's how Jimmy Carter emerged in 1976. No one would have known who Jimmy Carter was at this point. [45:42] and he won. I don't know who that person is, but I think that two things, qualities of character are going to be very important. Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility, all the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to be prized in 2028. And the second thing is, I think, being an outsider who's willing to really challenge orthodoxy in Washington, challenge the institutions, [46:12] on behalf of people is going to be a candidate who's well-received. This is a perfect segue to what I want to get to, because we're going to have a little fun here. I'm going to play some clips from some potential 28 contenders, and I'll get your take on them, both as messengers, what they're saying. But before we get to that, I want to – [46:29] Uh, you sat down with AOC.

[46:31] at the Institute of Politics before a live audience. One of her answers went quite viral. I'm going to play it for audience. I'm going to ask you about it. It was very clear this was a veiled threat, right? So the elite saying... [46:46] If you want this job... [46:50] You just stepped out of line. They assume that my ambition is positional. [46:55] Thank you. [46:56] They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat. [47:00] And... [47:03] my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go, Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go, but [47:20] Single-payer health care is forever. [47:24] A living wage is forever. Workers' rights are forever. Women's rights, all of that. [47:29] So a couple of questions on this. [47:31] Did... [47:32] That answer was a Rorschach test for people about whether she was going to run for president or not run for president. I wanted to see – [47:38] What do you how do you take that? Do you think that means she's planning on running for president, planning for the Senate doesn't yet know? [47:43] First of all, let me say I thought it was a really powerful answer. You know, I heard Favreau say the other day that if you want to run for president, you better know what you believe. And what she was saying there is I'm not in politics alone.

[48:01] for a job, I'm in politics for [48:05] of goals that might impact positively on people's lives, the kind of people who I grew up with, the kind of people who live all over this country. And I think she really means it. And I think that authenticity is really powerful. That said, if you, you know, she said other things in this answer and elsewhere in this conversation that made me think she really isn't hungering for [48:35] If I were her, what I would be thinking is, [48:39] I want to have an impact and I I'm not ready to sideline myself. The chances of anyone getting elected president, no matter how. [48:49] Good they are are limited. And, you know, she's 36 years old now. She'll be 38. She could walk into that Senate seat in New York. [48:58] And interestingly, with this crowd of young people, I said, you know, some people would like to see you run for president. A bunch of them cheered. And I said, others would like to see you run for Senator Schumer's seat in New York. Louder cheers. I couldn't tell they were cheering for her to run for senator or cheering for the fact that you said Schumer was up. Yeah, no, it was definitely a combination of those two things. [49:23] you know, she's got a high class problem here. She'd get a lot of votes if she ran for president. But I think... [49:31] The way I interpret what she said is I'm going to go where I think I can continue this fight for those things that I believe in and have the most impact I can have right now. And that that led me to conclude that she is more likely headed to the Senate race than to the presidential race. I mean, nothing she told me, nothing I but I.

[49:53] was that reading between the lines, I would be more surprised if she ran for president than if she ran for the Senate. And you and I both know that she would not be one of 100 if she went to the Senate. She, you know, she would, you know, when Barack Obama went to the Senate, he was, you know, number whatever, 99, 98 in the Senate, but he was not, [50:16] the 98th member of the Senate, people were always interested in what he had to say. Now, I have seen... [50:23] I worked for, as you have as well, worked for many politicians who were planning to run for president. [50:28] who got this question for the years, leading up to the actual announcement. And the general approach is to just start out. [50:35] muttering words until the questioner stops paying attention. And they're terrible at it. And this is the... [50:41] I mean, I say this without any hesitation, the best answer I've ever seen if anyone asked that question. Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know, I mean, it really does help to be motivated by doing something than by being something. I mean, the world of politics divides into these two cohorts, the people who run because they want to be something. And that's the larger cohort. And then the smaller, more admirable and the more impactful cohort are the people who run for office because they want to do something. [51:11] And that doesn't mean they don't have personal ambition. But but you really you know, honestly, I would say this to anybody who runs for president. It's too damn hard to do it. I don't mean just to win, but it's such an arduous thing to do. Don't do it unless you know why you're doing it. And just, you know, and if you think that it's such a prize to live in a gilded prison, you're making a mistake.

[51:41] feel sorry for a president of the United States, but you do change your life forever. And it's not all positive. I mean, you basically give up your, you know, a lot to do it. I, you know, I think, I'm not saying that she won't run and I'm not saying that she won't run someday. But [52:03] based on what I heard... [52:05] And if I were betting on it, I would bet that she's going to the one place and not the other. I had the same impression that she was that he clearly the people who have wanted to be president since they were 17 years old. She said that it's obvious in the answer. She's clearly not one of those people. She said that she said, I'm not one of these people who have been planning my political, my, my, you know, planning my campaign for an office since I was seven, seven years old. [52:35] or nominated to the Congress. And she was in her headquarters in a billiards hall in the Bronx with some supporters around her with her hand over her mouth and her eyes wide open, watching these returns come in. She was as surprised as anybody. Whatever she decides. I think when she first came to Congress, she was clearly one of the best communicators in terms of how you communicate. She understood the modern media environment better than almost anyone in Congress, which is not saying a ton. But she's doing Instagram live. [53:05] she knows how to do it. [53:06] But I think in the last couple of years, she's also become the best – one of the best messengers in the party.

[53:12] Like about what she actually says, like it's very it's very powerful. She came there. She's the youngest woman ever elected to the House. I think we've watched her mature as a political leader during those eight years. I think that process is ongoing, you know, and I think she knows that, too. But she's an impressive person. The reason that she is so good. Yes, she knows how to use social media and modern media. [53:42] can buy is the ability to communicate authentically and to give people a sense that you're talking honestly with them. [53:54] political leaders do and she has that quality so that's a hell of a thing to build on [54:06] Pod Save America is brought to you by BILT. We can all agree that housing is expensive. Rent, mortgage, doesn't matter which one you're paying. It stings every month. Sounds like the California debates we've been watching. Governor's debates. But BILT can make it feel a little better. Let me explain. BILT started out rewarding members on their rent. Now, as of 2026, BILT members can also earn points on mortgage payments wherever they live. Every housing payment earns you points you can use toward flights with top travel partners like United and Hyatt, Lyft Rides, Amazon.com purchases, so much more. [54:36] classes. You can use it for parking. There's gift cards at over 120 brands. You can use it for a down payment on a home, student loan balances, different restaurants. But here's what I think is the most underrated part. Bill members also get access to a neighborhood concierge. Cool.

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[56:21] This is Ross Chastain, NASCAR driver and your fresh from Florida farmer, letting you know that the freshest fruits and vegetables grown right here in the Sunshine State. [56:31] are picked at peak freshness and shipped to your market to ensure that there's sunshine in every bite. [56:37] When you shop for locally grown fruits and vegetables, look for the Fresh From Florida logo. It's a sign of local pride, peak freshness, and quality you can trust. [56:47] That little logo, it's a big deal. [56:53] All right, let's let's watch some other people see what you see what you think. I'm gonna start with John Ossoff who may or may not run for president, but he certainly has to win reelection in Georgia first. Let's take a look at one of his recent rally. How does American politics really work? [57:09] It's coin-operated. Money goes in. [57:16] Favors come out. It's been running on secret money, corporate money, billionaire money, both sides. [57:26] Both sides. [57:32] Citizens United was the worst court decision in modern American history. [57:39] He's singing from my hymn book there. Yeah, I know. I know. What do you think about him as a communicator? You know, he's a great communicator. I haven't seen him as most of the time when I see him, he's behind a podium. And, you know, there are other elements of communication. And I haven't seen a lot of that, although I just spoke to someone, someone you and I both know who saw him at an event.

[58:02] I think it was out west and said, [58:06] uh, [58:06] He was really, really good. [58:09] And kind of off the cuff interaction with people and so on. Listen, I take him seriously. You know, if you if you believe what I said earlier about the kind of candidate who will do well, he checks a lot of those boxes. [58:39] inside the beltway politics, which he's not. So, you know, I mean, it's a quick turnaround. He's young. But I think youth also is an advantage in this election because after two presidents who were in their 80s, I think people are going to be really looking for a more youthful candidate. You raise an interesting point because I think he is the best speech giver that I've seen in a while. [59:09] who speak like Obama. And I think he does the best. Like, you can see it in the tone. [59:14] He has some of the same pauses, the same cadence, but it doesn't look like Obama karaoke, which sometimes he gets. Apparently, yeah, we've seen that, too. He apparently does a lot of writing. You know, Obama, you know, he had great speech writers. You work with some of them. But they would tell you that, you know, they would give him a product that was in good shape, and then he would buff it up or add things that took it from one level to the next. And because of that, he was familiar. He felt organic to the copy he was reading.

[59:44] So I think he has he has that. But the other thing that people don't appreciate about Obama and you would because you travel around with them like, you know, those 87 days we spent in Iowa where he was, you know, doing six, eight stops a day more even in small venues, interacting with people. [1:00:14] It's not just one event. So you can be great at pole vaulting, but you still have to throw the javelin. And so the test of campaigns is, do you do all the events well enough? [1:00:27] to win. So I don't know that about Ossoff, but he's certainly a promising politician. Yeah, I want to see him – I mean this is a very self-referred way to say, but can he pass the podcast test? Can he sit and shoot the – I was just watching a clip of Obama over there. Well, that's subtle, Pfeiffer. Well, he's been on our podcast. He's done fine. But it's not really can you come on Positive America or Hacks on Tap. It's can you go on – [1:00:51] Rogan or all the CMO. Can you relate to people on a cultural, personal level that's not just politics? The test that Vice President Harris wouldn't take. [1:01:00] Yes. Yes. All right. Let's do the next one is someone familiar to all of us. Pete Buttigieg. [1:01:05] There is a powerful American majority for change and for the things we believe in. Because right now you've got this administration that's created the illusion.

[1:01:15] that their positions are supported by most Americans. And it's just not possible. [1:01:20] True. [1:01:21] Most Americans agree that we should be taxing the wealthy more, not giving giant tax cuts to billions. Most Americans think it is nuts that we're being told we can't have nice things like money. [1:01:32] Rural hospitals and good roads and fully funded public schools. [1:01:37] at the same time that you've got billionaires paying a lower tax rate, [1:01:41] than the nurses in those hospitals and the workers who work on those roads and the teachers who teach in those schools. What do you make of Pete? Well, look – [1:01:50] In many, I've said this before, he is. [1:01:55] as [1:01:56] Um... [1:01:57] bright and thoughtful as anybody I've I've seen since Barack Obama in terms of his ability to sort of think in interesting ways and posit arguments in ways that really are clear and thoughtful. And he's he's a very, very talented guy. And and I really I like him a lot. I mean, [1:02:23] And I think he's underrated in this. You know, I mean, when you hear conversations, he's not people don't talk about him. But, you know, every time you look at a poll and some of its name recognition, yes, but he's he's. [1:02:36] well regarded by Democrats and the things he's articulating out there kind of [1:02:43] They square up with some of the things I'm saying. He's talking about renewal, not restoration. He's talking about reform, you know, like basic fundamental reforms. You know, now, you know, I don't know whether...

[1:03:00] experience of the Biden administration is advantageous or not. Maybe not. I'm going to guess net neutral at best, is my guess. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder. I haven't ever had this conversation with him whether if he had to do it all over again, whether he would have opted for that. He might be in better position. [1:03:17] position than he was. You know, there's always this question about an openly gay man running, is America ready for that? And look, the one thing that he did not prove in 2020 was that he could win black votes. And that is a really essential task for anybody to get through this process. [1:03:39] You know, black voters in the South in particular are really, really important. And so, you know, [1:03:47] but the talent is undeniable. [1:03:51] Yeah, I think Pete's incredibly smart. I saw him at an event recently and he just... [1:03:56] He's so good off the cuff. He's so good answering questions. Yeah. And he does the podcast. He passes the podcast. Yeah. All those things. The thing that was always the, I think, [1:04:06] Not like the black voters is like the mass. You can't win the math as such with primaries across the South, the way delegates are allocated. There's no way to do it. That's why Obama won. It's why Hillary won. Right. It's why Biden won. Right. Right. [1:04:19] But the thing about Pete's communication in 2020 was it always felt to me like a little bit at a remove. Like he was so good and so polished that –

[1:04:30] You know, it's just like there was this distance between. I think it's a really I think it's an important observation. Yeah. But I will say when he was on CNBC. [1:04:40] a few weeks ago, and he was arguing with Joe Cronin. Yes. I thought it was some of the best – like, Pete will go on, and he'll get every word exactly right on Fox News, and he'll stuff Sean Hannity into a proverbial locker or whatever else, and it's incredible. But when he was on with Joe Cronin, like, he showed – [1:04:54] Like he was so frustrated and so angered by the stupidity of and the unfairness of what Kroon was saying. It was really was like that was one of his most authentic moments. I thought it was quite, quite good. And I think maybe indicative like his life has changed a lot. [1:05:09] since 2020, right? He's had, he's got married, he's had kids, he's like been, he's been through times. And I, so I think, you know, I think it'll be, I mean, very interesting to see how he's involved Canada this time around, because if so, there's real potential. And he benefits from the fact that New Hampshire is probably the first state and it's a place where he has a great base of strength. Yeah. And continues to pull. Well, uh, don't underestimate the value of having run the [1:05:34] just to use another sports analogy, he knows the lay of the greens, uh, and, and running for president, uh, [1:05:41] is not like running for any other office. So he knows the pressures of it. He knows the cadence of it. He knows this stuff. That is a valuable asset. All right, let's look at Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky. You've seen how some of this speak has crept into the Democratic Party, and we sound like we're talking down to people.

[1:06:01] We've got to talk to people and not at them. Kentucky got hit by that opioid epidemic as hard as anybody. [1:06:08] but maybe West Virginia. I mean, we've all lost people we love and care about. I didn't lose one to substance use disorder. [1:06:14] I lost them all to addiction. [1:06:16] If we want to push back against this president and what he's doing to snap, trying to hold hungry people hostage for political gain, it can't be that there'll be food insecure. [1:06:26] It's got to be that they'll go hungry. We've got to communicate to people and the values that they know and how they would talk to each other. Electability is obviously going to be a huge issue for Democrats, as it was in 2020. No one has a better electability story than this year. What do you make of them? [1:06:42] Look, I mean, again, going back to the things I told you before, I mean, you have to look at him because he's an outsider. He's also a guy who, by the way, can go into those black churches and in a compelling way. [1:07:00] And, you know, and in terms of empathy, most of the time when we've seen him over the last eight years, it's because his state has been beset by some natural disaster or, you know, in some cases, a horrific gun incident. [1:07:15] And... [1:07:16] And he's really, really good at that. He's great at expressing empathy. I sort of agree with what he said there. The thing I would say is it's not just about the language that we use. It's about and I've said this a lot of times. My objection to Democrats since the Democratic Party has become a kind of metropolitan, college educated party is we're still a party of working people or see us that way, see ourselves that way.

[1:07:46] anthropologists and we show up and we say, we're here to help you become more like us. And the implied message is that what you do really isn't as important as what we do, except then when we have a pandemic and then we're home and we're making our living on our computer. And they're out there caring for us, protecting us, making things, shipping things and doing everything it takes to keep the country going. [1:08:16] Well, [1:08:16] the pandemic's over and then they sort of become invisible again. So I think it's more, it's about more than just the language. We fundamentally have to, um, [1:08:27] think about how we value people in our society. [1:08:33] All right. Last one we'll do is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. We have an opportunity to have a real debate within our party about what we stand for, about what our affirmative vision is. It has to be about what we are going to do to make people's lives better. [1:08:50] And I think that that is a debate that our party hasn't had for a good long while. And that debate is not only going to help the Democratic Party. I think it's going to be healthy for this country. [1:09:03] that I want to be a part of that debate. Bring the common sense sensibility of what we do in Pennsylvania to that conversation. Like Beshear, Shapiro has won the key set of Pennsylvania. He's likely going to win it again by a very large margin, which will bolster his electability case. What do you make of Shapiro? Look, he's a very talented and very smart. And what he said, I

[1:09:29] I... [1:09:30] Um... [1:09:31] He's one of the guys who... [1:09:34] He can slide into sort of... [1:09:37] pigeon Obama from time to time. And he's taken a lot of... [1:09:43] criticism for it. He can be a little irascible. And for him, I think the important thing is to be real. He's so smart and politically savvy that sometimes you feel like he's giving the politically savvy attention. [1:10:02] well manicured answer and you don't know what what you don't see the person behind it. So those would be the concerns that I'd raise. But look, I thought, you know, I thought he should have been the vice presidential candidate in in 2024. Probably good for him that he wasn't. [1:10:21] But I think highly of him. And he's got some good stories to tell that story about the sort of [1:10:32] in Pennsylvania is a metaphor for something that Democrats need to struggle with is if you're the party of government, how do you assure people that government can work? And he's got some examples to underscore. He also, Dan, has he's forged a relationship with working class voters and rural communities in his state. You know, I think he does approach those voters respectfully and has

[1:11:02] That I think is very useful and important and instructive. So, you know, again, you've got a good assortment there. I know you only have a short period of time, so you can't put all 106 aspirants up there. But that's a that's a that's a pretty strong assortment of candidates. Yeah. You know, this Shapiro. [1:11:22] It's probably not discussed enough how popular he is in Pennsylvania. Being a popular governor of Pennsylvania is not an easy thing to do. This is a state that Donald Trump has won twice and has moved away from Democrats. We have moved away from Pennsylvania demographically as a party. He basically has a coalition that... [1:11:39] combines the new version of the Democratic Party with these college-educated suburbanites outside of the collar counties around Philadelphia with some of the numbers that Democrats like Obama and Clinton had in the rural parts of the state in the great expanse between Pennsylvania and between Philly and Pittsburgh. Let me ask you a question. And based on, you know, you've got your finger on the pulse of – [1:12:05] of the left and the party. You know, the question that comes up oftentimes from Jews, and I'm Jewish, is, well, can a Jew get elected given the antipathy toward Israel now? And now he's been a very strong critic of Bibi Netanyahu. But how big an issue is that? Do you think that's an insuperable

[1:12:35] know better. [1:12:36] I don't believe being Jewish is a barrier that cannot be overcome for a Democratic candidate. I think that any Democratic candidate is going to have to have a – [1:12:45] vociferous [1:12:47] criticism of the Netanyahu government is going to have to take very strong positions that would have seemed impossible a few years ago about conditions on aid to Israel, about funding the Golden Dome. I mean, even our – your close friend, my old boss, Rahm Emanuel, came out suggesting he would not be for that. I think what you cannot be seen – you don't want to be seen in a Democratic primary as the – [1:13:07] pro Netanyahu candidate or the APAC candidate or someone who's associated with the Biden's administration's position. [1:13:13] or policy on gaza so i think he can do it but it's gonna those are gonna be tricky waters for him to navigate given some of the ways in which he's approached those issues in his past well let me say it changes rhetoric in recent you know yeah well i mean you know one thing you said uh [1:13:28] I quite agree with the attitudes have shifted in ways we wouldn't have predicted because Bibi has done things we never would have, you know, predicted perhaps we, we could have or should have, but his, the way he prosecuted the war in Gaza, you know, I, I say this as a, as a Jew, it's, you know, I, I was horrified and, you know, [1:13:54] I'm angered by what happened on October 7th, but that doesn't mean that I don't grieve for the children of Gaza and that I'm not repulsed by the way that that unfolded. And I don't think you're going to find...

[1:14:11] candidates, Jewish or not, who don't agree with that. One interesting thing is that they have an election in Israel in October. Bibi Netanyahu may be gone by the time this campaign begins in earnest. And you wonder whether... [1:14:27] whether that changes anything, you know? Yeah, it's a very open question of what the world will look like when these candidates actually have to go get votes in New Hampshire or whatever other states in the early part of the calendar in early 2028. I did not play a clip from Kamala Harris. If you had asked me two or three months ago, I would have put the [1:14:45] strong, [1:14:47] Odds against her running. I think in the recent months, she's been out there more. She's been doing more things that suggest that maybe she's seriously thinking about running. What do you make of that? I don't know what to make of it. I mean, she obviously is making noises as if she's going to run. And, you know, I. [1:15:02] Once you run for president, especially when you come as close as she did, especially under the circumstances she did, very hard to look around and say, why not me? But I also don't think America is going to and Democrats are going to ultimately go for the back to the future candidate. You know, there's a lot of there are a lot of seared memories of 24 and a lot of it don't have to do with her, but with her boss, you know, in the White House. [1:15:32] you [1:15:33] you know, it didn't end well. There were a lot of Democrats who [1:15:37] We're hoping that it would. And part of it did have to do with her inability or reluctance to do the things that you have to do at that level. You know, go on those podcasts, be real, be open. And and of course, the answer on.

[1:15:54] the view under the withering interrogation of the people on the view, to not be able to answer the question that I think any sort of, [1:16:06] competent, [1:16:07] candidate for at any level would know how to answer when asked, did you, you know, is there anything you would have done differently? She didn't have to say. [1:16:16] Yes, these things. She could have said, I'm grateful for the opportunity he gave me. I'm not going to critique him here. I'm here to tell you. [1:16:26] I'm not running for the to be the second term of Joe Biden. I'm running to be the first term of Kamala Harris. And I'll tell you what I'm going to do. I mean, there are a million ways to have answered that question. She just couldn't find any of them. And those are the moments that define campaigns. Yeah, you know, it's. [1:16:41] From... [1:16:42] Her perspective, right? As you came very close, you know, she believes, as many people in the campaign, that given more time, she might have actually won that race or she had not been thrusted. She had a chance to actually, if Biden had just not run at all and she'd won a primary, she'd have been a primary. [1:16:56] She could have maybe actually won in no way to answer that counterfactual. But you look at, you know, one way she's leading in all the polls right now. And now you and I know and everyone knows that oftentimes the person leading in the polls at the beginning is leading by dint of name recognition and nothing else. And that falls pretty quickly, like it did for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Yeah. [1:17:17] Joe Lieberman in 2004. [1:17:20] But... [1:17:21] It still is true that you're not winning the Democratic nomination without running up the score with black voters across the South. And.

[1:17:29] You look at that field right now and she's the candidate best position to do that. So you could, she could make an argument to herself about how she could win that nomination. Now the question will be, [1:17:37] And this was, I think, the experience John Kerry had when he was thinking of running again in 2008, is he was all ready to go, picked up the phone, started calling all his old supporters, and they were like, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Biden, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Obama, I'm with Edwards. And she might have a similar – I don't know what the appetite is. And not just – probably, from what I understand, not just supporters and donors, but even some key staff. [1:18:07] position but I just don't see this and I [1:18:14] I [1:18:16] Yeah, I mean, I do think she's the beneficiary of early name recognition on this issue. She may well do, you know, really well with African-American voters in the South. But I keep thinking back to 2019 when she was a co-frontrunner with Joe Biden when she entered the race and she never made it to Iowa. And her numbers in those southern states weren't that good. So I don't know. [1:18:46] It's, you know, there's one. I just don't have enough information to know, but I don't think she's going to receive some – [1:18:55] Tough, tough. [1:18:56] news from some of the people whose support perhaps she was counting on.

[1:19:01] Anyone I didn't mention that you have your eye on? Actually, it's kind of uncanny because you – [1:19:09] You listed a bunch of folks who, you know, look, um, [1:19:13] Uh... [1:19:14] I got two guys from Illinois, right? Yeah. I was looking for a good Rom clip to play at the end for you, but I didn't want to do that to you. Look, Rom, I would say that Gavin Newsom won the presidential primary of 2025. I think Rom is doing pretty well in 2026, at least with opinion elites. I mean, he's throwing out a bunch of ideas. He's really aggressive. [1:19:44] We'll see where that takes him. Governor Pritzker is running for re-election, but it seems pretty clear to me that he's headed in that direction. And he's shown a lot more serious political chops than I expected. [1:19:59] Uh... [1:20:00] would have expected when he first ran for office. And he does have affection among the Democratic base. You probably hear it. [1:20:11] in your own... And he's got, obviously, he's got... [1:20:14] the advantage of resources. So, you know, I wouldn't, [1:20:19] draw him out of the circle. You know, I [1:20:26] Rumors emanate from. [1:20:27] Washington that Cory Booker might run again. He didn't do that well in 2020. But he's got talents. He's got gifts. And

[1:20:38] in an election that may be about sort of [1:20:41] character and kind of the, you know, to borrow Biden's phrase, though, no one should use it, the soul of America, which honestly is going to be important in 2028. You know, he's a he's a guy who can speak to that. But I, you know, I don't know. [1:20:58] if he can [1:20:59] you know, do appreciably better than he did. But I'm also like open to someone we haven't, you know, someone coming from somewhere we don't even know. Like I said, this is a thing, an election that's grooved for an outsider. And it may be, you know, you hear about Mark Cuban, you hear other people mention, you know, [1:21:21] So who knows? Who knows? I remember calling Jon Stewart and... [1:21:26] in 2019 after Zelensky got elected president of Ukraine, before Zelensky became, you know, the wartime leader, the Churchill of our time. And I said to John, John, you know, short Jewish comedians, they're all the rage right now. So, you know, don't count him out. All right. I think it's a great place to leave it. John Stewart for president. David Axelrod, thanks for joining us. Always great to see you in Chicago. [1:21:56] Pods of America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Farrah Safari, with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hefcoat, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pellaviv, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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