Project Freedom Paused, Ohio & Indiana Primary Results, Poll Shows Dems Advantage

[00:02] President Trump paused the U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz just two days after it started. He cited "great progress" towards a deal with Iran, and his Secretary of State says combat operations are over. Are they? [00:14] I'm E. Martinez. That's Leila Faddle. And this is Up First from NPR News. [00:20] In Indiana, several Republican state senators who defied President Trump on redistricting lost their primary. So what do the results say about Trump's hold on the Republican Party? And a new poll shows Democrats with a significant edge to gain control of Congress six months ahead of the midterm elections. The economy has been the key issue. And with gas prices up, how much trouble are Republicans in? [00:44] you need to start your day. [00:46] you [00:51] This message is from AT&T with your summer essential, the iPhone 17 Pro. Its center stage front camera auto-adjusts the frame to fit everyone into group selfies. Right now at AT&T, ask how you can get iPhone 17 Pro on them with eligible trade-in. Requires eligible plan. Terms and restrictions apply, subject to change. Visit att.com slash iPhone for details. [01:17] Support for NPR comes from IBM. On Smart Talks with IBM, Malcolm Gladwell explores how organizations are using technology to solve complex challenges. I spoke with Sergi Ghosh, Heineken's chief AI officer. If you can connect all the different applications, all the platforms, remove fragmentation, scale very quick, that's what we call the best connected drawer. That's where IBM is really partnering with us.

[01:47] podcasts. [01:49] Support for this podcast and the following message come from strawberry.me. [01:53] Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Are you stuck in a job you've outgrown or never wanted in the first place? [02:00] Are your reasons for staying really just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner and get 50% off your first coaching session at strawberry.me slash NPR. [02:19] Two days after the Trump administration touted a new plan to get ships out of the Strait of Hormuz and protect them from Iranian attacks, that effort is over for now. President Trump posted Tuesday night that the operation was paused because of, quote, great progress toward a final agreement with Iran. The reversal came the same day that Secretary State Marco Rubio said combat operations in Iran were over. NPR's White House correspondent Franco [02:49] You know, Franco, we've heard the president say the war is over, nearly over, will be over in two weeks several times now. Is it actually over this time? Yeah, I mean, we really don't know. I mean, Rubio says the focus now is on negotiations and that the U.S. is only going to be involved in defensive operations. And what that means is very simple. [03:09] There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. [03:12] OK, we're not attacking them. We're not. But if they are attacking us or they're attacking a ship, you need to respond to that. But to your point, I mean, we also heard earlier in the day Trump expressing frustration that Iran's leaders had yet to capitulate after two months of U.S. military and economic pressure.

[03:27] They should wave the white flag. The white flag of... [03:31] surrender. In hockey they say [03:33] Uh... [03:35] Uncle... [03:36] Right? [03:37] You know, it just shows how things just are changing all the time. Yeah. Last night, Trump also touted what he called progress towards an agreement with Iran. Has there actually been progress? Yeah, it's interesting because Trump's words were very different than some of the messaging being delivered by Rubio, who told us yesterday that the two sides were still trying to figure out what the specific issues each side were willing to negotiate about. [04:00] That's the object of this diplomacy, is to come up with some level of understanding about what are the topics that they've agreed to negotiate on. We don't have to have the actual agreement written out, and one day this is highly complex and highly technical. [04:11] But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear about the topics. [04:15] that they are willing to negotiate on, and the extent and the concessions they're willing to make at the front end in order to make those talks worthwhile. [04:22] I mean, Layla, that makes it sound like they're very early in the process, which, again, is very different than the great progress that Trump is portraying. Yeah. I mean, and the big issue, right, is still the Strait of Hormuz. More than 100 ships a day used to travel through that waterway before the war. And it's only since the U.S. and Israel started this war that Iran took control of the strait. So if combat operations are over, as we heard from Rubio, what happens with the strait?

[04:52] U.S. allow Iran to normalize the idea that they can control the waterway. But he also stopped short of saying what action would take place. Now, the Secretary of State briefed the press on this latest development. Is that unusual? Well, I mean, the administration really came across the board yesterday with a stepped-up message about the war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Cain briefed reporters. Trump also took questions. And it just comes at such a big moment in the conflict as Americans continue to feel kind of the economic [05:22] this. And Rubio said that Iran needed to make a sensible choice that leads them to reconstruction and prosperity. [05:30] The alternative is growing isolation, economic collapse, and ultimately total defeat. [05:35] I know what the right choice is for Iran. I hope that the people over there making decisions will make the right one. Yeah, I mean, the message boils down to a mix of de-escalation combined with this kind of tough talk. And it can be confusing at times. That's White House correspondent Franco Ordonez. Thank you, Franco. [05:51] Thank you, Layla. [05:58] President Trump largely succeeded in his effort to punish Indiana lawmakers who did not go along with a redistricting plan last year. Trump targeted seven incumbent state senators, backing challengers against them. Most of the incumbents lost. NPR's Stephen Fowler is here to share what these results can tell us about the upcoming midterm. So Stephen, let's start

[06:22] There was one incumbent who prevailed, and another race is still too close to call, currently separated by three votes. More than $7 million were spent on just TV ads to convince a few thousand people to pick a handful of different lawmakers who basically have the same views as the existing officeholders, except the one time they differed from Trump. [06:49] It's just another example of how, for Trump's base, he's the alpha and omega and nothing changes their view of him. However, at a time where polling shows the base is shrinking and there's little support for Trump and his policies outside of that group, and when other Republicans on the ballot could use his help, [07:19] it. [07:19] All right. Ohio also held primaries Tuesday. You've been reporting for a year and a half on Democrats doing better than expected. Did that happen in Ohio? [07:28] Absolutely. Even though there wasn't really a competitive primary for either party for the statewide governor and senate races, according to election data, there were more Democrats than Republicans that voted early. And in a number of key House districts, you had more Democrats show up too. And primary elections can act as a sort of temperature check for how voters are feeling. Mike McCarty of Maumee, Ohio, told NPR he was looking for change.

[07:54] I would like to see a Democratic majority in Congress especially, because I think what Trump is doing and what his administration is doing is not good for America. [08:05] Democrats feel like they have a good shot at flipping the Ohio governor's race and the Senate race in what will be some of the most competitive and expensive races in the country in November, and as they try to hold on to two House seats that were redrawn to be more conservative-leaning. [08:22] I mean, Stephen, you know this. We're six months out from the general election. I mean, what else should we take away as we look to the primaries in the weeks and months ahead? [08:30] Well, the Indiana State Senate aside, it is very hard to unseat an incumbent. And for U.S. House members on the ballot, that remained true. However, in Indiana, you saw nearly every incumbent who did have primary challengers get under 70% of the vote. There was one incumbent who raised 100 times more than his opponent and narrowly survived. There was another who had a close race against someone who never filed any campaign fundraising reports. [09:00] signaling a desire for something in someone else. [09:03] I also want to reiterate that in pretty much every state that's had a primary so far, you know, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Illinois, you've seen a surge of Democratic turnout and Republicans have been more, which if those feelings continue through November, it's going to make the country's politics look very, very different next year and for the final two years of Trump's term.

[09:27] That's NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler. Stephen, thanks. [09:31] Thank you. [09:32] The latest NPR PBS News Marist poll helps us understand why we've seen consistent overperformance for Democrats this primary season, even in red states. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro has been sifting through the results and joins me now. Hi, Domenico. Hey, Leila. So what are we learning about the midterm specifically? [09:55] Well, right now, six months from Election Day, Democrats do have a pretty significant advantage, according to the poll. When people were asked if congressional elections were held today, who would they vote for? They chose Democrats by 10 points. That's a pretty big edge if you look at past election performances. [10:25] 61% of people who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris say that they're, quote, very enthusiastic, but just 47% of those who voted for Trump say they are. Okay, so it sounds like Democrats have a [10:36] pretty sizable advantage here. Could that mean a wave election? In previous years, the party with these kinds of numbers would have been thinking about a pretty big wave, you know, but waves nowadays are a lot lower than in the past because there are just way fewer competitive districts. And while Democrats do have the advantage and some key groups who vote with them are fired up, especially white voters with college degrees, other Democratic pillar groups, though, are not as much. Young voters, black voters, Latinos, for example, they're all

[11:06] in saying that they are very enthusiastic to vote. And we know midterms are much lower turnout affairs than presidential elections. On average, we see about a 30% drop off. So right now, Democrats, certainly the favorites to take back the House, but they have a lot of work to do to shore all that up. Now, we often talk about the fact that Trump's base is particularly loyal through many ups and downs. Do we expect that to hold once again? We saw an example of Trump's control over the MAGA base last night in his targeting of Republican state senators in Indiana. [11:36] who defied him on redistricting, most of them lost. It's one reason why so many Republican elected officials don't cross him. But general elections aren't primaries, and Trump has been really toxic with swing voters. His overall approval rating is the worst it's ever been in our poll. Just 37% approve while 59% disapprove? That can be a real albatross for Republican candidates across the country, especially when key groups appear to be softening or turning away [12:07] White men and women without college degrees. Rural voters. Shortly after Trump was sworn into office, they all had a positive job approval rating of him. Now that's flipped, and more in each group disapproves of the job that he's doing. Key crossover groups like Latinos and young voters have all moved heavily away from him, and Republicans have the added problem of struggling to turn out Trump's base when he's not on the ballot. Now, that sounds like a lot stacking up against Republicans right now. The economy has been the key issue for many Americans.

[12:36] because of the war in Iran. Is that what's prompting this low point for the president? Well, to think about it, gas prices seem to be the catalyst for Trump's economic numbers nosediving even farther than where they've been. Eight in 10 say gas prices are straining their household budgets. 63% blame Trump for that increase. 63% also say the economy is not working well for them. Trump's approval on the economy as a result is just 35%. You know, [13:06] He's been lower on the economy in this term than he ever was the first time around, even at his most unpopular. That's NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you. You got it. [13:24] And that's Up First for Wednesday, May 6th. I'm Leila Faldig. And I'm A Martinez. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Megan Pratz, Dana Farrington, Mohamed El Bardisi, and Arzu Razvani. [13:36] Ziyad Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Nisha Highness. Our technical director is Carly Strange and our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin. Join us again tomorrow. [13:51] you [14:04] This message comes from Integrative Therapeutics, makers of Cortisol Manager. Daily stressors come and go, and heightened stress can affect sleep and focus. Cortisol Manager helps support a healthy response to everyday stress. Available at Amazon.com. Use code STRESS2026 for 20% off.

[14:22] These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. [14:31] This message comes from MidiHealth. Co-founders Joanna Strober and Dr. Kathleen Jordan discuss why they started a virtual care platform to empower and educate women in perimenopause and menopause. [14:44] Historically, perimenopause and menopause have been very stigmatizing. So people haven't wanted to admit that they're in perimenopause and menopause as though it was like embarrassing, which is insane. It's just something happening to your body. [14:56] So one of the things that we're trying to do is de-stigmatize these topics. Perimenopause and menopause are just women's health. So we try to educate women all the time. Maybe it's your hormones and we would like to help you. [15:10] Yeah, and I find women actually want to talk about it. It's one of the things they always comment at Mitty is that they finally feel heard. One of the ways that [15:19] women find MIDI is actually from other women, and I think it's meaningful. [15:24] Midi Health, committed to helping women in midlife with paramenopause and menopause care. Accessible via telehealth visits at joinmidi.com. [15:36] Support for NPR comes from IBM. On Smart Talks with IBM, Malcolm Gladwell explores how organizations are using technology to solve complex challenges. I spoke with Sergi Ghosh, Heineken's chief AI officer. If you can connect all the different applications, all the platforms, remove fragmentation, scale very quick, that's what we call the best connected drawer. That's where IBM is really partnering with us.

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